Assesses independent confirmation and external validation in cosmological observables, indicating a roadmap for future validation.
Structural Gravity Theory (SGT) v5.0 establishes an independent-confirmation and external-validation protocol for the predictions frozen in SGT v4.0. Version 5.0 does not extend the theory and introduces no new degrees of freedom, actions, or post-hoc parameter adjustments. Instead, it specifies how the preregistered v4.0 predictions are to be subjected to independent reproduction, external observational validation, cross-code, cross-dataset, and cross-probe consistency tests, robustness analysis, and preregistered falsification criteria. The framework covers cosmological, large-scale-structure, modified-gravity, gravitational-wave, black-hole-shadow, and relativistic binary-pulsar observables. Designated public observational sources include DESI DR2, Euclid DR1, Pantheon+, BAO from BOSS/eBOSS DR16, Planck 2018, Event Horizon Telescope observations of M87*, and relativistic binary-pulsar measurements. A central feature of v5.0 is an Evidence-State framework that explicitly separates the software/theory version from the demonstrated level of scientific confirmation. Current demonstrated status: Evidence State 3 (Framework Ready).Target: Evidence State 5 (Independent Confirmation). The criteria for Evidence State 4 (Independent Validation) and Evidence State 5 have not yet been satisfied. All observational comparisons are therefore reported as Pending or Not Evaluated. No claim of observational confirmation or falsification is made in this release. Formal falsification is governed exclusively by preregistered, observable-specific thresholds fixed prior to execution. Descriptive agreement diagnostics are kept distinct from formal falsification criteria. The deposit contains the 38-page manuscript and a registry of 26 figures documenting the frozen predictions, independent-reproduction workflow, observational-validation framework, confirmation and falsification criteria, Evidence-State assessment, and roadmap beyond Evidence State 5. The central claim of SGT v5.0 is not that SGT has been independently confirmed, but that the conditions under which third parties can independently reproduce, validate, confirm, or refute its frozen predictions have been explicitly specified.
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Koji Okino (2026) studied this question.
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