Evaluating the impact of toxicological risk assessment tools on chemical spill response: a critical analysis of exposure prediction models

Chemical spills in the industrial areas of South China pose significant risks to public health and the environment. To respond to these circumstances with sufficient safety measures, exposure prediction is needed to inform protective measures and containment methods. This study examines the performance of two toxicological risk assessment tools – AERMOD and Hotspot – to predict human exposure and environmental exposure in the event of a chemical spill. A mixed-methods research design was applied, employing retrospective modelling of chemical spills, structured interviews, and field focused observations with 200 emergency responders and environmental officials in urban industrial settings and rural industrial settings. Quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS for descriptive analysis, correlation methods, and qualitative thematic analysis, to determine the accuracy and usability of the tools, and some limitations. Overall, there was a strong, positive correlation between predicted and observed levels of exposure, as well as other limitations including, the absence of real-time data, variability in the physical environment, and lacking sufficient training. Recommendations include locally calibrating models, building capacity, and integrating relevant environmental data to improve accuracy. These results will serve to improve preparedness and decision making about managing chemical spill events across different industrial workplace settings.