Cost-Effectiveness of Maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin for Intermediate and High Risk Nonmuscle Invasive Bladder Cancer

PURPOSE: While guidelines support the use of maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin for patients with intermediate and high risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer, in an era of bacillus Calmette-Guérin shortage we explored the cost-effectiveness of maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A Markov model compared the cost-effectiveness of maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin to surveillance after induction bacillus Calmette-Guérin for intermediate/high risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer from a U.S. Medicare perspective. Five-year oncologic outcomes, toxicity rates and utility values were extracted from the literature. Univariable and multivariable sensitivity analyses were conducted. A willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per quality adjusted life year was considered cost-effective. RESULTS: At 5 years mean costs per patient were $14,858 and $13,973 for maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin and surveillance, respectively, with quality adjusted life years of 4.046 for both, making surveillance the dominant strategy. On sensitivity analysis full dose and 1/3 dose maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin became cost-effective if the absolute reduction in 5-year progression was greater than 2.1% and greater than 0.76%, respectively. On further sensitivity analysis full dose and 1/3 dose maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin became cost-effective when maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin toxicity equaled surveillance toxicity. In multivariable sensitivity analyses using 100,000 Monte-Carlo microsimulations, full dose and 1/3 dose maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin was cost-effective in 17% and 39% of microsimulations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Neither full dose nor 1/3 dose maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin appears cost-effective for the entire population of patients with intermediate/high risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer. These data support prioritizing maintenance bacillus Calmette-Guérin for the subset of patients with high risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer most likely to experience progression, in particular those who tolerated induction bacillus Calmette-Guérin well. Overall, our findings support the American Urological Association policy statement to allocate bacillus Calmette-Guérin for induction rather than maintenance therapy during times of bacillus Calmette-Guérin shortage.