Quantifying the opportunity costs and additional CO2 sequestration potential of a climate adaptation programme in German forest enterprises

This study quantifies the opportunity costs of roundwood production, measured as forgone net roundwood revenues, and the associated changes in CO 2 stock resulting from the implementation of the incentive programme “Climate Adapted Forest Management”. To assess the relationships among species composition, economic performance, and carbon sequestration, we examined data from three enterprise types defined by their prevailing cover of Spruce, Pine, or Broadleaf species over a 200-year simulation period. The results reveal substantial variation across enterprise types. Broadleaf forest enterprises exhibit the lowest opportunity costs (–€79 to –€68 ha −1 ), owing to higher initial levels of coarse woody debris. Pine enterprises show moderate costs (–€88 to –€73 ha −1 ), while Spruce enterprise types experience the steepest decline (–€91 to –€10 ha −1 ), reflecting higher climate-induced mortality and costlier species transitions. All enterprise types achieve a net increase in CO 2 stock over the 200-year simulation period, with Broadleaf (+68.5 t CO 2 ha −1 ) and Pine (+66.9 t CO 2 ha −1 ) showing the highest accumulation, and spruce exhibiting a substantially smaller gain (+28.2 t CO 2 ha −1 ). Overall, the findings highlight a pronounced trade-off between economic and climate objectives: despite considerable opportunity costs, broadleaf and pine enterprise types demonstrate the most favourable balance between financial performance and carbon storage.