Simple Statistical Models for Discrete Panel Data Developed and Applied to Test the Hypothesis of True State Dependence against the Hypothesis of Spurious State Dependence

James J. Heckman, Simple Statistical Models for Discrete Panel Data Developed and Applied to Test the Hypothesis of True State Dependence against the Hypothesis of Spurious State Dependence, Annales de l'inséé, No. 30/31, The Econometrics of Panel Data (Apr. - Sep., 1978), pp. 227-269