Reflections for the future of system dynamics

The foundations of and recent trends in system dynamics are reviewed. The increase in qualitative only modelling has potential dangers and there is a need for better guidelines. New software tools provide increased power and flexibility for quantitative modelling, enabling the ‘flight simulator’ concept to be applied to a wide range of business environments but more research on interface design is required. Research into the connection between model structure and behaviour, and also the role of optimisation is being undertaken. The growth in the use of system dynamics, including by consulting firms, is fuelling a need for better education and training, which is being met by an expanding number of university programmes. (In the USA the concepts are being successfully introduced into some primary and secondary schools). The next challenge is to extend the application of system dynamics from the (mainly) business area so as to tackle the ‘big’ national and global problems.