The Demographic Dimension of Japan's Broadband Paradox "Elderly Population and the Fiber-Speed Gap"

Japan has one of the oldest populations in the world and it also possesses one of the highest, near universal, Fiber to the Home (FTTH) coverage, yet it ranks considerably lower ,28th, in real-world fixed broadband performance internationally, often referred as “Japan’s Broadband Paradox”. Previous studies have examined this paradox with the lens of broadband infrastructure, internet performance, and population ageing independently; however, little research has investigated whether demographic ageing is associated with internet performance while accounting for differences in fiber infrastructure at the municipality level. This study integrates municipality-level demographic statistics, FTTH coverage data, and Ookla Speedtest performance data for approximately 1,900 Japanese municipalities to examine whether the proportion of residents aged 65 years and above is associated with download speed, upload speed, and latency. Pearson, Spearman, weighted, and partial correlation analyses were conducted to evaluate these relationships while controlling for FTTH coverage. The analysis identified a statistically significant negative relationship between elderly population ratio and download speed, which remained largely unchanged after controlling for FTTH coverage. Municipalities with older populations were also associated with higher latency, while the relationship with upload speed was comparatively weaker. An additional weighted analysis indicated that municipalities with larger elderly populations also tend to record fewer internet speed tests per capita, suggesting lower participation in performance measurement. Overall, the results suggest that differences in FTTH availability alone do not fully explain variation in broadband performance across Japanese municipalities. The study highlights the importance of considering demographic composition alongside infrastructure when evaluating digital connectivity.