Assessment of Deforestation Vulnerability Zones in the Indo-Bhutan Himalayan Foothills: A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach Using AHP, TOPSIS, and VIKOR

Forests have long served as vital ecosystems, supporting biodiversity and sustaining human livelihoods worldwide. However, deforestation in the Indo-Bhutan Himalayan foothills represents a significant environmental concern, posing threats to biodiversity and the ecosystem services that sustain local communities. The main causes of deforestation in the area include infrastructure development, illegal logging, agricultural growth, poor enforcement of conservation laws, etc.. As a result, hundreds of hectares of forest areas have been converted to various land uses, causing a considerable loss of forest cover during the past few decades. This study utilizes a multi-model Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach to identify and assess zones vulnerable to deforestation within this critical region. Moreover, a comparative ensemble approach was used to evaluate the effectiveness of different methods for deforestation analysis throughout. Deforestation Susceptibility Index (DSI) maps were developed by integrating various environmental and socioeconomic factors, including rainfall, temperature, soil texture, NDVI, LULC, population density, and proximity to roads and rivers. The AHP model was applied to prioritize these factors, while the TOPSIS and VIKOR models were used to rank susceptibility zones based on their proximity to ideal and anti-ideal solutions. A multicollinearity test was performed to verify the reliability of the selected parameters. The results identify several critical zones in the study area, validated through AUC–ROC and RMSE scores. Moreover, a single parameter sensitivity assessment revealed the potential effective weights of triggering factors within the study region. The findings reveal different levels of vulnerability, emphasizing the necessity of targeted conservation measures to mitigate deforestation risks. This study provides a valuable framework for policymakers and conservationists to prioritize intervention areas, promoting long-term ecological sustainability in the Indo-Bhutan Himalayan foothills and serving as a model for similar studies in other deforestation-prone regions.