Short-term vs. long-term stability of government attention: insights for regional industrial innovation

Changes in government attention influence the pace and trajectory of policy adjustments, thereby affecting the continuity and stability of industrial policy. Such changes are crucial for fostering industrial innovation through optimized resource allocation. However, most research has emphasized the static distribution of government attention at a specific time snapshot, lacking theoretical and empirical investigations into how the stability of government attention affects innovation. This study systematically examines the extent to which the stability of local governments’ attention to a specific industry influences and shapes variations in innovation outcomes. Using China’s information and communication technology (ICT) industry as a case, we find that the short-term stability significantly enhances both the quantity and quality of industrial innovation by stimulating R&D investment, fostering a conducive market environment, and alleviating financial constraints. Conversely, long-term stability in government attention reinforces technological path dependence, thereby exerting a negative impact on innovation quality. The findings highlight the limitations of long-term stability. While short-term stability provides governments with sufficient time to optimize innovation strategies and achieve local performance peaks, it often gives rise to a capability trap. The strong alignment between governments and their immediate environmental demands restricts their ability to explore more distant alternatives, ultimately resulting in structural rigidity and institutional failure caused by long-term stability. It is essential to incorporate potential policy disruptions and fluctuations into routine adjustment cycles. To strike a balance between short-term and long-term stability, an optimal policy adjustment horizon of approximately 5 years may provide the necessary flexibility for sustaining innovation dynamics.