The Future of Applied Sedimentary Geology

The turn of the millenium is for many of us an occasion to pause and consult the crystal ball. Sedimentary geologists have added incentive to do so because the calendar event coincides with a profound change in what one may call our professional hinterland, the part of society that requires our expertise and offers jobs. Sedimentary geology and its sister, paleontology, originated as historical sciences, dedicated to the study of the sediment record as a history book of the evolution of life and the changing environments at the Earth's surface. To this day, deciphering earth history remains a principal task of sedimentary geology and a source of major scientific contributions. However, increased quantitative understanding of geologic systems and societal demand have established prediction besides description as an increasingly important part of the natural sciences. Earth scientists are expected to deliver predictions of two sorts—prediction in the space domain, notably the inaccessible subsurface, and prediction in the time domain, the future behavior of the solid earth and its fluid envelopes. Sedimentary geologists are involved in both types of prediction. Exploring for resources such as petroleum, metallic ores, or drinking water as well as determining the spread of underground pollution requires mainly prediction in space. Predicting oceanic and atmospheric climate constitutes the principal task in the time domain. Prediction in time also includes catastrophic changes related to energy bursts of the solid Earth, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or landslides. As is typical for the natural sciences, work in sedimentary geology spans the full range from pure, curiosity-driven research to applied research driven by the demand of economies. Both pure and applied research may be relevant for society and may make fundamental contributions to knowledge. I will first discuss major challenges in pure research and then make a tour of the horizon …