Stress-testing the EU energy system: Modeling resilience without Russian gas

Europe's gas and electricity markets are deeply intertwined, making the system vulnerable to compound supply and demand shocks-particularly following the loss of Russian pipeline gas. Using a global coupled gas-electricity partial-equilibrium model that incorporates LNG trade, storage behavior, demand-side response, and multiple weather scenarios, we show that Europe can generally maintain physical supply even under severe stress. The principal vulnerability lies not in outright shortages but in sharp, asymmetric price spikes, especially during cold winters or when LNG supply is constrained. LNG import capacity, gas storage, hydropower, and fuel switching in the power sector act as key stabilizers, though network bottlenecks persist in Eastern and Southern Europe. Accelerated renewables deployment materially reduces exposure to gas-linked price volatility, whereas additional Russian LNG has only a marginal impact on prices. These findings point to the importance of system-wide stress testing, targeted infrastructure investment, and reducing gas's role as the marginal price setter in electricity markets.