Potential impacts of emissions associated with unconventional hydrocarbon extraction on UK air quality and human health

Here, we report the first results of model sensitivity simulations to assess the potential impacts of emissions related to future activities linked to unconventional hydrocarbon extraction (fracking) in the UK on air pollution and human health. These simulations were performed with the Met Office Air Quality in the Unified Model, a new air quality-forecasting model, and included a wide range of extra emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) to reflect emissions from the full life cycle of fracking-related activities and simulate the impacts of these compounds on levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ). These model simulations highlight that increases in NO x and VOC emissions associated with unconventional hydrocarbon extraction could lead to large local increases in the monthly means of daily 1-h maximum NO 2 of up to + 30 ppb and decreases in the maximum daily 8-h mean O 3 up to − 6 ppb in the summertime. Broadly speaking, our simulations indicate increases in both of these compounds across the UK air shed throughout the year. Changes in the 1-h maximum of NO 2 and 8-h mean of O 3 are particularly important for their human health impacts. These respective changes in NO 2 and O 3 would contribute to approximately 110 (range 50–530) extra premature-deaths a year across the UK based on the use of recently reported concentration response functions for changes in annual average NO 2 and O 3 exposure. As such, we conclude that the release of emissions of VOCs and NO x be highly controlled to prevent deleterious health impacts.