The Causes of Racial Disorders: A Grievance-Level Explanation

This paper presents three basic arguments that draw on data from a sample of forty-two American cities. First, the data reveal that three separate factors-frequency, precipitation conditions, and severity-are important to the structure of racial disorders. Much earlier work, especially that of Spilerman, focused only on frequency. Hence, in part two we consider disorder frequency, replicating and extending Spilerinan's findings. In particular, we show that certain city-specific differences (nonwhite population size and police force size) have strong effects on disorder frequency. Third, consideration of disorder severity shows the need for a model quite different from that used for frequency. The conditions critical to the dynamics of initial confrontation are not those critical to the dynamics of escalation. Cityspecific grievance variables, especially black-white differences in jobs and housing, are particularly important.