The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite: Simulations of Planet Detections and Astrophysical False Positives

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite ( TESS ) is a NASA-sponsored Explorer mission that will perform a wide-field survey for planets that transit bright host stars. Here, we predict the properties of the transiting planets that TESS will detect along with the EB stars that produce false-positive photometric signals. The predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of the nearby population of stars, occurrence rates of planets derived from Kepler , and models for the photometric performance and sky coverage of the TESS cameras. We expect that TESS will find approximately 1700 transiting planets from pre-selected target stars. This includes 556 planets smaller than twice the size of Earth, of which 419 are hosted by M dwarf stars and 137 are hosted by FGK dwarfs. Approximately 130 of the planets will have host stars brighter than . Approximately 48 of the planets with lie within or near the habitable zone ( ); between 2 and 7 such planets have host stars brighter than . We also expect approximately 1100 detections of planets with radii 2–4 , and 67 planets larger than 4 . Additional planets larger than 2 can be detected around stars that are not among the pre-selected target stars, because TESS will also deliver full-frame images at a 30-minute cadence. The planet detections are accompanied by over 1000 astrophysical false positives. We discuss how TESS data and ground-based observations can be used to distinguish the false positives from genuine planets. We also discuss the prospects for follow-up observations to measure the masses and atmospheres of the TESS planets.