Species distribution models for the alien invasive Asian Harlequin ladybird (Harmonia axyridis)

The Asian Harlequin ladybird ( Harmonia axyridis ) is a globally invasive alien species. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) aiming at an explanation of the observed native and invasive distributions and the prediction of the species’ potential distribution. SDMs were built based on bioclim parameters with Maxent (i) on known native occurrence only (SDM nat ), (ii) on known European invasive occurrence only (SDM inv ) and (iii) by combining both previous approaches (SDM all ). Results indicate that SDM inv match the observed European invasive range better than SDM nat or SDM all . The origin of Asian founders in Europe remains unknown. SDM inv highlighted a restricted area in China which may represent the region of origin of the European Harlequin ladybird, leaving the possibility of within‐species climate niche variation. As a result, when targeting the worldwide potential of invasiveness of H. axyridis , SDM all may reveal maximum results uncovering the species’ potential distribution. These results have to be seen in the framework of conceptual problems and pitfalls when generating SDMs including niche definition, niche shift, sampling bias, biological importance of predictors and model transferability uncertainties.