Where Does the City Grow? Residual Floor Area and the Determinants of Residential (Re)development in São Paulo

Using a novel block-level dataset covering all residential (re)developments in São Paulo, this paper examines why some blocks are (re)developed while others are not. Consistent with development-viability theory, the results show that blocks with greater residual development potential (residual floor area ratio [RFAR]), lower plot fragmentation, and higher incomes were significantly more likely to be redeveloped. Development was also more likely where RFAR varied within blocks, indicating a preference for infill opportunities. The findings further show that redevelopment was less likely in blocks with higher proportions of Black residents, suggesting racialised outcomes. The paper explains where redevelopment occurs and how regulatory and structural factors combine to mediate these patterns.