Epidemiological trends and predictions of pancreatitis in China from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Pancreatitis is a common gastrointestinal disease and a major burden for the public health system. This study aims to analyze the epidemiological trends of pancreatitis in China from 1990 to 2021, assess the impact of alcohol on the disease burden, and predict future trends. Methods: Incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were quantified using age-standardized rate (ASR), estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and average annual percent change (AAPC) from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021. Death and DALYs attributed to alcohol use were analyzed. The Age-Period-Cohort Model (APCM) was used to analyze the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on trends and short-term trends were predicted by Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC). Results: From 1990 to 2021, the pancreatitis incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in China declined, with EAPC of −1.45 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: −1.81 to −1.09), −1.36 (−1.84 to −0.87), −1.34 (−1.45 to −1.23), and −1.57 (−1.64 to −1.51), respectively. APCM analysis showed that the incidence and mortality risks of pancreatitis in China have continued to decline over time. The incidence, mortality, and DALY of pancreatitis increased with age, with a higher burden in the population over 65 years old. The proportions of pancreatitis deaths and DALYs attributable to alcohol use were higher in middle-aged men and have shown a slow upward trend in recent years. It is expected that by 2035, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of pancreatitis in China will decrease annually in men but increase slowly in women. Conclusions: Although the overall burden of pancreatitis in China has decreased, the burden in the elderly population remains high. Pancreatitis can be controlled through improved public health policies and education, especially among male drinkers and the elderly.