The Formal Model for Noctua pronuba (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) representing a typical agricultural-landscape night-flying moth species for pesticide risk assessment

Nocturnal lepidopteran pollinators face pesticide exposure risks in agricultural landscapes, yet lack adequate risk assessment frameworks compared to diurnal species. We present a formal model description for Noctua pronuba within the Animal Landscape and Man Simulation System (ALMaSS), providing the first comprehensive agent-based framework for assessing the impacts of pesticides on nocturnal moth pollinators. The model integrates temperature-dependent development using Lobry–Rosso–Flandrois thermal performance curves, stage-specific behaviours including photoperiod-triggered reproductive diapause and nocturnal foraging, and realistic dispersal capabilities up to 11 km. Three pesticide exposure pathways (dietary intake, contact, and overspray) enable risk assessment across all life stages, while multiple mortality sources capture natural population regulation through parasitism, disease, and density-dependent processes. Model parameterisation primarily draws on comprehensive historical studies of N. pronuba , supplemented by data from related noctuid species where gaps exist. The framework’s modular design enables adaptation to other nocturnal lepidopteran species by adjusting parameters. We explicitly define the model’s applicability domain as temperate European agricultural systems and acknowledge key limitations, including the exclusion of evolutionary responses and sublethal pesticide effects. This spatially explicit, behaviorally realistic framework provides regulators with a practical tool for comparing relative pesticide risks across landscape scenarios while recognising inherent uncertainties in predicting absolute population outcomes. The model addresses a critical gap in pollinator risk assessment by representing an ecologically important but understudied guild of nocturnal pollinators.