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A simulation model is developed and used for evaluating the reliability of supplying a known demand pattern in a given water supply system in which shortfalls are caused by random failures of the pumping equipment. An economic model is presented that enables one using the reliability model to compute the cost of the marginal water obtained by improving the reliability of the system and to determine the desirability of the improvement from this cost computation. Results are presented from the initial tests of the reliability model, in which the sensitivity of the reliability to various variables was examined. The results of applying the reliability and economic models to an existing water supply system are presented and discussed.
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Damelin et al. (1972) studied this question.
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