Research Note: Tourism Demand Forecasting with SARIMA Models – the Case of South Tyrol

In this study, the performance of SARIMA models is explored in the context of tourism demand forecasting by using monthly time series of the overnight stays in South Tyrol (Italy) from January 1950 to December 2005. The forecasting performance is assessed using data for January 2006 to December 2008, and the authors find evidence that the SARIMA(2,1,2)(0,1,1)–ARCH(1) outperform the alternative models.