Comparing Routes to Complex Adaptation: Conditional Waiting-Time Models, Horizontal Transfer, and State-First Hypotheses

This corrected methods preprint compares three nonexclusive routes to complex adaptation: conventional population-genetic assembly, horizontal transfer, and a proposed computed state-first process. It withdraws the earlier treatment of an exponential whole-route waiting time as a general evolutionary law and restricts that calculation to its declared simultaneous-event toy model. A seeded Wright-Fisher illustration, target-set hitting-time definitions, censored-data likelihood, nonexclusive route mixtures, and a randomized contrast for the state-first hypothesis make the assumptions and failure conditions explicit. The numerical examples are illustrative and are not calibrated to a real trait. Horizontal transfer is treated as empirically established in particular cases, while Cellular Oscillating Tomography remains an unconfirmed order-of-events hypothesis requiring prospective intervention and negative controls.