A computer-simulated model which is described here by means of an abbreviated flow diagram has been designed to express in quantitative terms the factors which play a role in the transmission cycle of an arbovirus. A frequency distribution is assigned to the interaction between the vertebrate host and insect vector, and in this respect the model differs from previous strictly deterministic models. The results (with hypothetical values for the variables) indicate that the most critical factor in the cycle is the survival probability of the vector, whereas the population dynamics of the vertebrate host have less effect, provided that a reasonably large numbers of animal are present. A field study of the cycle of Chikungunya virus is in progress and some of the findings have been used in the examples presented here.
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Moor et al. (1970) studied this question.
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