Modelling the predicted geographic and economic response of UK cropping systems to climate change scenarios: the case of sugar beet

Summary. Geographical changes in suitability for the cultivation of sugar beet in England and Wales were predicted for climate change scenarios for 2023 and 2065 by integrating a climate database (1951‐80) with climate‐driven crop growth models. Initially, the outputs were produced as point values (at meteorological site locations) of predicted potential yields for current production. The outputs were validated statistically using actual crop yield figures collated from bibliographic analysis. The most suitable model was run again incorporating projected temperature and precipitation changes for 2023 and 2065. The outputs were mapped using a Geographical Information System and used to predict possible economic changes in farm profitability (and general market trends). Results indicated that the area of suitability for the growth of the crop moves westward with an increase in production in the West Midlands of approximately 5% (2 t ha ‐1 fresh weight) by 2023 and 13% (6 t ha ‐1 fresh weight) by 2065. The reduction in production in East Anglia coupled with the increase in production in the West does not align well with the current location of processing factories