New Dawn or False Start in Brazil? The Political Economy of Lula's Election

This article offers a political-economy interpretation of the transformations in the Brazilian economy and society since 1980, concluding with the Presidential election of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in October 2002. Two main issues are considered. First, the transition from rapid growth under import-substituting industrialisation (ISI) to persistent economic stagnation under a new system of accumulation, deŽned as ‘new liberalism’. Second, the article considers, in this context, the meaning and signiŽcance of Lula’s election. This article has four sections. The Žrst reviews the weaknesses of ISI and the reasons for its collapse. The second explains the transition to new liberalism and the main features of this system of accumulation. The third analyses Lula’s election in the light of Brazil’s persistent economic problems, and considers