A model scenario for the change in global marine biogenic CaCO 3 export production (CaCO 3 = calcium carbonate) due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure is carried out. Findings from laboratory experiments, which suggest a decrease of biocalcification at higher p CO 2 , are extrapolated to the world ocean by use of the biogeochemical ocean general circulation model HAMOCC. For an A1B IPCC emission scenario and constant emission rates after year 2100, the simulation predicts a global decrease of biological CaCO 3 export production by about 50% in year 2250. The negative feedback due to this drop in CaCO 3 export on the atmospheric CO 2 concentration is small as compared to the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. This negative feedback will potentially be compensated by a shallower remineralization of organic carbon.
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Christoph Heinze (2004) studied this question.
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