The quality and accuracy of a sample of public and commercial weather forecasts in the UK

At a time when the commercialisation of weather forecasting is proceeding at an alarming rate around the world, it is essential to review the quality and accuracy of weather forecasts to ensure that current standards are at least maintained. The privatisation of meteorological services in some countries (e.g. New Zealand) and the vigorous commercialisation of established Met. Offices such as in the United Kingdom, France and Sweden suggests that customer satisfaction, increased income and reduced expenditure will dominate the weather forecasting scene over the next decade. It is important that the quality of weather forecasts is closely monitored before and after commercialisation to ensure that the accuracy of weather forecasts continues to improve and that public weather forecasting does not suffer. The improved technologies for data collection such as weather satellites, weather radar, wind profilers, road weather information systems, sferics, etc. should make it easier to assess forecast accuracy ‐ but with the exception of road weather forecasts there is little sign that the new technology has been used for this purpose. The current accuracy of a sample of weather forecasts in the UK is discussed and a framework for publishing future weather forecast verification statistics is presented.