Use of terrain variables for mapping gully erosion susceptibility in Lebanon

This paper predicts the geographic distribution and size of gullies across central Lebanon using a geographic information system (GIS) and terrain analysis. Eleven primary (elevation; upslope contributing area; aspect; slope; plan, profile and tangential curvature; flow direction; flow width; flow path length; rate of change of specific catchment area along the direction of flow) and three secondary (steady‐state; quasi‐dynamic topographic wetness; sediment transport capacity) topographic variables were generated and used along with digital data collected from other sources (soil, geology) to statistically explain gully erosion field measurements. Three tree‐based regression models were developed using (1) all variables, (2) primary topographic variables only and (3) different pairs of variables. The best regression tree model combined the steady‐state topographic wetness and sediment transport capacity indices and explained 80% of the variability in field gully measurements. This model proved to be simple, quick, realistic and practical, and it can be applied to other areas of the Mediterranean region with similar environmental conditions, thereby providing a tool to help with the implementation of plans for soil conservation and sustainable management.