What question did this study set out to answer?

To develop a predictive model for wheat yield based on climate, precipitation, and irrigated area during the grain-filling period using an optimized machine learning algorithm.

December 23, 2022Irrigation and Drainage

Grain yield prediction model based on the analysis of climate and irrigated area conditions in the wheat grain‐filling period

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To develop a predictive model for wheat yield based on climate, precipitation, and irrigated area during the grain-filling period using an optimized machine learning algorithm.
Implemented an XGBoost regression model enhanced with Bayesian optimization to forecast wheat yield using weather, rainfall, and irrigation parameters in Uttar Pradesh, India.
Assessed model stability and performance across the top five optimization parameter sets using 10-fold cross-validation compared against baseline models.
Applied the optimized model to 2022 irrigation and climate datasets to project regional yield per acre and total harvest.
Tenfold cross-validation confirmed superior predictive stability and effectiveness of the Bayesian-optimized XGBoost regression model over alternative models.
The model estimated total 2022 wheat production in Uttar Pradesh at 17,930,817 tonnes, reflecting a downward trend relative to preceding years.
Model outputs revealed that year-on-year increases in irrigated acreage partially offset the yield penalties driven by extreme heat conditions.

Authors

QGQizhou GongJilin University HHHongliang HuangUniversity of Macau BZBingjiang ZhangHuazhong University of Science and Technology

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Implication

Machine learning analysis demonstrates climate and irrigation impacts on wheat yield, indicating expanded irrigation partially mitigates extreme heat losses.

Cite This Study

Gong et al. (2022) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a7d322714bfcdf15b6e4c5b https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.2777

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Implication

Machine learning analysis demonstrates climate and irrigation impacts on wheat yield, indicating expanded irrigation partially mitigates extreme heat losses.

Grain yield prediction model based on the analysis of climate and irrigated area conditions in the wheat grain‐filling period

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Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

Grain yield prediction model based on the analysis of climate and irrigated area conditions in the wheat grain‐filling period

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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