Application of a Simulation Model to Estimate Treatment Error and Clinical Risk Derived from Point-of-Care International Normalized Ratio Device Analytic Performance

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposed to enhance performance expectations for point-of-care testing (POCT) international normalized ratio (INR) devices relative to International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 17593:2007. The objective of the study was to estimate the frequency of warfarin dosing errors associated with a central laboratory INR method, a POCT INR method, and the proposed FDA performance goals. METHODS: A data set of INR results (n = 51912) from adult patients with INR ≤4 was used to assess the influence of adding assay imprecision and bias on warfarin dose decisions. The frequency of error in warfarin dose and size of error (≥1 or ≥2 dose categories) was compared using published assay specifications for the Instrumentation Laboratory ACL TOP® and the Roche Diagnostics CoaguChek® XS relative to the proposed FDA guidelines. RESULTS: The frequency of warfarin dose misclassification was largely influenced by bias and was not sensitive to assay imprecision. The central laboratory and POCT INR methods met the FDA performance specifications, had equal rates of ≥2 warfarin dose category error, and had statistically different rates of ≥1 warfarin dose category error in large samples (n >250). CONCLUSIONS: Simulation models are useful tools for evaluating POCT INR assay performance criteria required to achieve the proposed FDA guidelines. This simulation depicted how the Roche Diagnostics CoaguChek XS instrument meets the guideline.