The protein transition: what determines the animal-to-plant (A:P) protein ratios in global diets

Background: Several high-income countries have announced plans to reduce the animal-to-plant (A:P) protein ratios in their population diets. Their current A:P ratio is around 65:35, with two thirds of the protein coming from animal sources, meat, eggs, and dairy. Efforts to reduce the dietary A:P protein ratio to 50:50, 40:60, or below are sometimes referred to as a "healthy protein transition." Methods: Analyses of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Bank data were used to show that an opposing and far more important protein transition is taking place globally. Results: In most low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), the dietary A:P protein ratio was closely associated with, if not determined, by gross national incomes (GNI). As incomes rise, LMIC populations adopt more varied and more nutrient-rich diets with more animal proteins and especially meat. This protein transition, manifested by a strong observed relation between rising incomes and higher A:P protein ratios, follows a well-known principle of economics known as Bennett's Law. Conclusion: Consumer education and regulatory and policy measures aimed at reducing dietary A:P protein ratios worldwide may not uncouple the fundamental relation between powerful economic forces and global diet structures.