Research on the mechanism of agricultural industrial agglomeration’s Impact on rural labour outflow: an empirical analysis based on China’s inter-provincial panel data

Based on panel data from 2011 to 2022 covering all Chinese provinces except Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet, this study constructs a multi-weighted, multi-scenario spatial Durbin model to examine the structural stability of the relationship between agricultural industrial agglomeration and rural labour outflow. The results indicate that the local effect of agricultural industrial agglomeration on labour outflow is not a structurally stable relationship, but rather an average effect dependent on specific contextual conditions. Spatial spillover effects are generally limited and lack robustness, thereby refuting the implicit assumption in existing research that ‘agglomeration effects possess cross-spatial stability’. These spillover effects exhibit directional consistency only under specific spatial linkages and institutional conditions, suggesting that they are closer to a context-triggered latent mechanism. The moderating role of contextual variables indicates that this effect is not universally present but is embedded within specific spatial structures, thereby revealing that it is essentially a conditional process dependent on spatial structure. Based on these findings, this paper defines the scope of agricultural agglomeration effects from the perspective of spatial structure and institutional conditions, revealing that these effects hold only under specific forms of connectivity and contextual conditions.