The long-term impact of science funding: evidence from the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars in China

This study examines the short- and long-term effects of China’s National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (DYS) on STEM researchers’ academic outputs, focusing on awardees from 2007 to 2012. Using a researcher–year panel and a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) design, the analysis considers publications, top-decile papers, citations per paper, and field-weighted citation impact (FWCI). Results show sustained improvements mainly in publication output and top-decile papers, while average citation-based indicators display more heterogeneous patterns: publication volumes and high-impact outputs rise during the five-year grant and continue to increase afterward. FWCI grows mainly during the funding period and then stabilises, suggesting early visibility followed by slower influence accumulation. Placebo and lead-term tests support the parallel-trends assumption. Year-by-year patterns reveal an ‘application effect’ before the award and an ‘evaluation effect’ near completion, reflecting behavioural responses to funding cycles. Effects are strongest in life sciences, chemistry, and information and computing sciences, while they are weaker in basic fields like mathematics and physics. Overall, the findings indicate that investigator-oriented funding generates durable academic benefits and underscore the need for discipline-sensitive evaluation windows and sustained post-award support in basic science.