Scientific Opinion on the assessment of the control measures for category A diseases of Animal Health Law: Foot and Mouth Disease

Figures

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  Figure 1. Map of countries or zones with the OIE official free status for Foot and mouth disease, 2020 (Source: OIE, © OIE)

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  Figure 2. Map of countries with notified outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in 2015–2020 (Data sources: ADNS and OIE)

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  Figure 3. Minimum sample size, to detect animals with clinical signs with confidence level of 95%, assuming design prevalence of 2%, using different sensitivity levels for the clinical examination (Se.: 30%, 50%, 70%, 90%)

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  Figure 4. Minimum sample size needed to achieve 95% confidence in detecting one infected animal, based to the sensitivity of the clinical examination and the sensitivity of 3 different laboratory tests (Ab Ag ELISA, Se: 83.3%; 3D rRT‐PCR, Se: 97.7%; 3D rRT‐PCR and 5′UTR rRT‐PCR in parallel Se: 99.5%), using different values for Design Prevalence (1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%)

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  Figure 5. PRISMA diagram FMD monitoring period ELS

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  Figure 6. Transmission kernels for FMDV

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  Figure 7. Assessment of the radius of the protection and surveillance zone for FMDV. The top panel shows the probability of transmission beyond a given distance (if transmission were to occur from an affected establishment) computed using the estimates (blue circles) and the lower and upper 95% confidence limits (error bars) for each kernel (and in the same order as) in Table 10. The thick black line indicates the median probability for all kernels. The black dotted lines indicate threshold probabilities of 0.05 and 0.01. The bottom panel shows the distances at which a threshold probability of transmission beyond that distance is reached calculated using the estimates (circles) and lower and upper 95% confidence limits (error bars) for each kernel. The thick black line indicates the median distance for all kernels. The black dotted lines indicate distances of 3 and 10 km (i.e. the proposed radius of the protection and surveillance zones, respectively)