Speculations on the European Mortality Decline

The causes of the European mortality decline which began in the seventeenth century and accelerated into the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries are examined. The author challeges the hypothesis that increasing inherited resistance to infectious disease was a major factor. After suggesting some of the reasons why this is unlikely [he discusses] some of the determinants that do seem...important. [He suggests] that mortality declined as a result of changes in the most prevalent diseases; that these changes were linked to changes in social and economic life but were determined by differences in the biology of microorganisms; and that the decline occurred in three broad but ragged and overlapping phases. The first phase which occurred during the seventeenth century was characterized by mortality peaks resulting primarily from the plague as well as by diseases such as typhus caused by wars and famines. In the second phase encompassing the eighteenth century these diseases declined because of the growing development of absolutism. In the third phase nonspecific pneumonia-diarrhea diseases became more important as causes of infant death. The author concludes that mortality declined primarily as a result of the decrease in epidemics. (EXCERPT)