What are they Waiting for? Strategic Information for Late Deciding Voters

Across a number of Western democracies, electorates are displaying ‘a consistent pattern of delaying their choice until later stages of the campaign’ (Box-Steffensmeier & Kimball, 1999; Norris, Curtice, Sanders, Scammell, & Semetko, 1999, pp. 178–179; Dalton, McAllister, & Wattenberg, 2000, p. 48; Fournier, Nadeau, Blais, Gidengil, & Nevitte, 2004). The Netherlands is no exception to this rule. Voters have begun to choose (cf. Rose & McAllister, 1986) and increasingly are doing so at a very late stage in the campaign. In 1971, 70 percent of Dutch voters reported that they knew several months before the election for which party they would vote; only 10 percent indicated that they had made their final determination as late as the last days before Election Day. By the turn of the 21st century things had changed considerably. In 2002, only 39 percent reported that they had made their decision several months before the election, whereas 29 percent reported they had only decided during the last days, including 9 percent who decided on Election Day itself (Van Holsteyn & Den Ridder, 2005, p. 166). In the general elections of November 2006, one-third of the voters decided during the last few days and 12 percent decided on Election Day (Van Der Kolk, Aarts, & Rosema, 2007, p. 213).