Measuring just transition: government attention and regional disparities in China’s path to decarbonization

This study evaluates China’s progress in just transition by highlighting the role of government attention and regional disparities. An evaluation index system – incorporating distributive, procedural, and restorative justice dimensions – was developed to measure annual provincial just transition levels. A two-way fixed effects model employing data from 2010 to 2020 reveals that local government attention significantly enhances both distributive and procedural justice, whereas its influence on restorative justice remains statistically nonsignificant. The results also show that investments mediate the effect of government attention on just transition and that promotion incentives moderate this relationship by strengthening the commitment to sustainability over short-term economic gains. Notably, marked regional disparities emerge. Economically advanced, non-resource-based provinces in the eastern region benefit from targeted initiatives and high fiscal capacity, which enables the effective reallocation of resources and benefits and translates into significant distributive justice gains. In contrast, resource-dependent provinces and those in the central region face structural constraints and conflicting policy priorities that hinder progress toward a just transition. These insights highlight the need for context-sensitive, region-specific policy frameworks that reconcile centralized mandates with local realities, offering actionable guidance for the promotion of equitable and sustainable just transition policies in China and beyond.