Just energy transition: navigating Poland’s transition away from coal mining

This perspective paper analyses Poland’s transition from coal mining, focusing on Upper Silesia—home to the EU’s largest coal mining workforce, with 78 500 direct mining jobs and an additional 21 000 indirect jobs at stake. Drawing upon original data analysis and existing literature, the paper examines the complex relationship between the coal phase-out and demographic decline at the powiat (county) level. While projected population decline could partially offset job losses from mine closures, the effects vary dramatically across powiats—from potential unemployment reaching 20.27% in Bieruńsko-Lędziński powiat to projected labor shortages in areas like Bytom and Zabrze. Despite a significant decrease in job opportunities in coal mining, averaging a 7.85% decline across affected powiats, there is a considerable likelihood that other industries will encounter labor scarcities. Second, the impact extends beyond direct mining employment—contractors and service providers are particularly vulnerable, with 70% of the 1054 identified contracting companies dependent on a single mine. Third, retraining faces specific barriers: miners strongly resist relocation, are reluctant to accept wage reductions and show limited interest in solar and wind energy sectors, suggesting energy efficiency, automotive, and ICT sectors as better alternatives. The paper demonstrates that successful transitions require understanding local contexts, from workers’ skill transferability to transportation infrastructure to fiscal capacity. These insights from Silesia offer valuable lessons for both developed economies managing industrial transitions and emerging economies seeking to balance economic development with decarbonization.