The link between climate and thermal energy demand on national level: A case study on Switzerland

Climate change motivates the pursuit of more efficient solutions for heating and cooling of buildings in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While many investigations have been made into how efficiencies can be improved on a technology level, far less are present for how climate change affects the future heating and cooling demand. In this paper, we analyze the extent in which global climate trends change the theoretical heating and cooling demand of buildings. The results are based on the link between heating and cooling of buildings versus climate, and the definition of steps leading from climate to energy consumption. Three different climate scenarios are considered by using the EURO-CORDEX simulations for the case study of Swiss heating and cooling demand. The most severe climate scenario RCP8.5 leads to a −40% decrease of heating degree days and a + 1300% increase of cooling degree days by the end of the century. The presented results can be used for energy system models and for future building design criteria.