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Seasonal rainfall frequently triggers slope instability and localized deformation in open-pit mines containing weak interlayers, posing challenges to safety and operational efficiency. This study develops a numerical modeling approach integrating dry-wet cycle damage quantification, a creep model, and Factor of Safety analysis to evaluate slope deformation and failure in the Mohuandang landslide at an open-pit mine. Numerical simulations, validated with on-site slope monitoring data, reveal that two heavy rainstorms in August 2018 triggered the landslide, emphasizing the slope’s vulnerability to dry-wet cycle-induced weakening. Additionally, this study provides valuable insights into slope stability under rainfall cycles. The findings contribute to the development of an early warning system for open-pit mines, determining the warning threshold v₁ as 2.83 mm/day by incorporating a safety factor of FS = 1.20 and accounting for the frequency of dry–wet cycles. This research provides practical guidance for landslide prediction and risk management in mining operations.
Zhong et al. (Sun,) studied this question.