Public transport availability, delayed learning to drive and later life car dependence

High levels of car dependency are a major challenge for decarbonisation policy. This paper explores how early-life mobility environments shape long-run driving behaviour through two underexplored questions: whether public transport access predicts delayed learning to drive and whether the age at which individuals learn to drive is associated with later driving intensity. We merge nationally representative survey data from Ireland (N > 2,000) with Public Transport Accessibility Level (PTAL) scores to model (1) age at learning to drive, using survival analysis, and (2) recent driving behaviour, using a hurdle regression model. Higher public transport accessibility is associated with significantly later learning, with individuals in high‑PTAL areas 30% less likely to have learned by age 20 than those with no access. Each year of delayed learning predicts a lower likelihood of weekday driving and a 2% reduction in Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) on driving days. The findings have implications for understanding the long-term benefits of public transport provision.