Quantitative analysis demonstrates insignificant win-rate gains from a 5–10° phase distance filter in trade execution, highlighting high risks from noise and transaction costs.
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: The 5–10° phase distance filter is not a concrete, testable edge; it is a re-description of the existing phase-distance metric with a narrow band. The claimed +1.7pp win-rate gain (n=156) is not statistically significant at conventional levels (p ≈ 0.15–0.20, depending on baseline variance). The sample is too small to distinguish signal from noise, and the live shadow-test proposal (next 200 trades) would still yield insufficient power to detect a 1.7pp effect with 80% confidence. The risk of rejecting high-reward trades outside the band is real and unquantified. No E8 geometry timing principle justifies a fixed 5–10° window; phase distance is a continuous variable, and any arbitrary cutoff must be derived from a structural break in the data, not from a single backtest run. EXPECTED IMPACT: Negligible or negative. Even if the 1.7pp gain were real, it would be erased by transaction costs and slippage in a live eToro execution environment. The filter would red Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
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