Modeling route choice behavior of evacuees in highly urbanized area: A case study of Bagong Silangan, Quezon City, Philippines

The need for better evacuation management is becoming inevitably important as a preparedness measure to minimize negative impacts of disasters. One of the essential aspects necessary for evacuation modeling and management is taking into account the travel behavior of evacuees. This study was conducted to understand the evacuation route choice behavior of households affected by the flood that happened during Mid-August of 2013 at Bagong Silangan, Quezon City, Philippines. Three binary logit route choice models with hazard-related and socio-demographic information, as well as evacuation-related decisions as exogenous factors, were estimated and validated. Significant explanatory variables in each model vary. Generally, Models 2 and 3 indicate some level of usefulness in predicting evacuation route choice behavior. Results also provide implications for evacuation planning and management. These models could be incorporated in an evacuation simulation model that is used to analyze and evaluate evacuation plans. The routes taken by evacuees according to their timing can then be the basis of traffic loaded on such routes and assessed whether number of evacuees can be accommodated accordingly. Based on the results, planners can analyze and evaluate appropriate actions such as the evacuation timing, routes and destinations to advise households at risk in case of future floods.