Global Trends and Future Uncertainties

The most significant trend in global higher education since the second World War has been massification, the dramatic increases in enrollments around the world. By 2018, global postsecondary enrollments topped 200 million—up from 132 million in 2004, and massification will continue through this century and likely longer. In the coming several decades, half the global expansion of student numbers will take place in two countries—India, where access is around 25%, and China, with 32% access. Most of Africa enrolls just under 10% of the traditional age cohort. Not only are numbers continuing to grow, but enrollment is becoming increasingly more diverse, not surprising as many economically developed countries now enroll more than 70% of the relevant age group. The expansion of student numbers and access to postsecondary education for broader segments of the population—women along with racial and ethnic minorities—is both desirable and inevitable. At the same time that the massification of enrollment has been taking place, the world economy has become more interdependent. Technology provided a mechanism for global communication and political integration, a hopeful trend. The European Union was established, and the Cold War ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. A new era seemed to be emerging.