Key result
Pericardial disease mortality rises ~3% annually since 2012, reversing prior downward trends.
Why the study?
Pericardial diseases are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, but relevant data regarding related mortality remain limited.
Observational (n=87,285)
Effect estimate: AAPC -0.78 (95% CI -1.03 to -0.53)
p-value: p=<0.01
Pericardial disease-related mortality in the US has been increasing since 2012, with persistent disparities among males, non-Hispanic Black populations, and the West region, and is projected to continue rising through 2035.
Rising pericardial mortality since 2012 with 2035 projections warrants monitoring; observational data leave open etiologic drivers and targeted strategies.
Background Pericardial Diseases (PD) are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. However, relevant data for PD-related mortality are limited. This study aims to evaluate the demographic and geographical variations in PD-related mortality in the United States and utilize deep learning model to forecast mortality trends. Methods PD-related deaths in adults aged ≥25 years were identified using CDC WONDER from 1999 to 2019. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 were determined. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) with 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs). A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network was developed to predict future mortality. Results Between 1999 and 2019, a total of 87,285 deaths were related to PD in the United States. The AAMR declined from 2.36 in 1999 to 1.70 in 2012 (APC: -2.74; 95% CI: −2.97 to −2.49; p < 0.01), followed by a significant increase to 2.04 in 2019 (APC: 2.94; 95% CI: 2.31 to 3.57; p < 0.01). Males (2.37) had a consistently higher AAMR than females (1.57). Non-Hispanic (NH) Black or African American had the highest AAMR (2.65), followed by NH White (1.90), Hispanic or Latino (1.62), and NH Asian people (1.57). Regionally, the West (2.11) recorded the highest mortality. The prediction model suggested a gradual increase in AAMR, reaching an estimated 2.54 by 2035. Conclusion Despite overall decline, the recent and projected rise in PD-related mortality highlights the urgent need to improve equitable healthcare access, particularly among males, NH Black population, and West region, who exhibit persistent disparities.
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Rehman et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Pericardial Diseases (n=87,285). Time period (1999-2019) was evaluated on Age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) trends (AAPC -0.78, 95% CI -1.03 to -0.53, p=<0.01). Pericardial disease-related age-adjusted mortality declined from 1999 to 2012 (APC -2.74) but significantly increased from 2012 to 2019 (APC 2.94), with projections estimating a continued rise to 2.54 per 100,000 by 2035.
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