The Cyclical Behavior of Individual Production Series, 1889-1984

This paper uses simple summary statistics to analyze the volatility, persistence, and comovement of 38 annual individual production series for the period 1889–1984. It seeks to identify the size, source, and correlation of fluctuations in the production of specific commodities within various sample periods and to analyze possible changes in these characteristics over time. The paper also discusses the implications of the behavior of individual production series for the behavior of the aggregate economy within the prewar, interwar, and postwar eras.