Rente foncière et anticipations dans le périurbain

Land Rent and Anticipations in Peri-Urban Areas. Urban sprawl modifies the structure of areas far beyond the actual urban cores, especially via agricultural and residential land markets in peri-urban areas. For an explicit examination of anticipations made on the future use of arable lands, we develop a two-stage hedonic model with a Box-Cox transformation of the endogenous variable, control of heteroscedasticity and of spatial autocorrelation. Our estimates are based on transactions in agricultural and urban land over 10 years on real estate markets in the Bouches-du-Rhône département, and on detailed descriptions of the environment of the property concerned, obtained through a Geographical Information System. We demonstrate that anticipation effects have a predominant impact on the market in agricultural land and that the institutional regulation of this market by land-use plans is not sufficient to keep them under control.