Operational numerical prediction of rapid cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic

The current generation of operational numerical weather prediction models has shown considerable skill in handling cyclogenesis. This paper assesses the accuracy of forecasts of rapid cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic from the operational NWP system at Bracknell and attempts to isolate the factors relevant to successful prediction. Illustrative material is drawn in particular from the case of the record low pressure centre that developed over the North Atlantic on 14 December 1986.