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Conceptual framework reveals context-aware AI tracking within-person changes lowers false positives in asymptomatic populations, indicating a path toward reliable screening.
Applying advanced measurement technologies proactively in asymptomatic populations predictably yields false positives, as a consequence of Bayes’ Theorem. Yet the same Bayesian arithmetic suggests a remedy: adding context. Serial and multimodal measurements, integrated using context-aware AI that prioritizes within-person change over population norms, can reduce false positive rates while preserving sensitivity. We describe early illustrations from imaging and molecular diagnostics and discuss challenges including cost, anxiety, liability, and equity.
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Shaywitz et al. (2026) studied this question.
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