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Time-series analysis reveals a negative correlation between geomagnetic activity and global GDP per capita growth with a two-year lag, suggesting solar cycles drive macroeconomic innovation waves.
This preprint uses a methodological approach developed by W. S. Jevons and A. L. Chizhevsky. Over the study period, geomagnetic indices in years of solar activity (SA) extremes were compared with annual growth rates of global per capita GDP with a two-year lag. A strong negative correlation was found: the correlation coefficient was -0.77, and the statistical significance was 0.0056. During years of high SA, powerful magnetic storms occur, synchronously affecting the nervous system of the entire planet, suppressing alpha rhythms in the brain, as confirmed by scientific research. This leads to a massive decline in creativity and, consequently, a shortage of breakthrough ideas. The decline in innovation activity leads to a slowdown in global GDP per capita growth with a two-year lag. Conversely, during periods of low Ap values, the geomagnetic background ensures more efficient brain function and a boost in creativity. Increased innovation efficiency translates into an acceleration in global GDP per capita with a two-year lag. The main limitation of the theories of N. D. Kondratiev, J. A. Schumpeter, and S. Yu. Glazyev is that they fail to explain the underlying cause of innovation cycles. They described in detail how capital is renewed, how innovations are implemented, and how technological paradigms change. However, a key question remains open: why do millions of independent people around the world begin to implement innovations in cycles rather than randomly? My theory eliminates this limitation. K-cycles of innovation are merely a consequence. The root cause lies elsewhere. The Sun exerts a strong influence on the efficiency of the brain and the effectiveness of innovation, thereby determining the overall K-cycle of the global macroeconomy. The author was the first to describe and use the concept of a large helioeconomic cycle. With the geomagnetic index Ap in 2024 (the year of the maximum SA) equal to 11.7, the growth of global GDP per capita in 2026 will be 1.6%.
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Белкин Владимир Алексеевич (2026) studied this question.
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