The Impact of Contraceptive Use and Abortion on Fertility in sub‐Saharan Africa: Estimates for 2003–2014

With the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, fertility has declined substantially in all regions of the developing world. The fertility decline, which started in Latin America and Asia in the 1960s, progressed rapidly through the decades that followed, reaching close to replacement level in these two regions (2.3 births per woman) in 2005 An incipient decline in fertility in sub-Saharan Africa was first observed in the 1980s, but evidence has shown that the trajectory of decline in the region has not followed the pattern observed for other developing regions. Apart from the fact that the decline took longer to begin, its pace is also slower than in other regions, reaching an average of 5.1 births per woman in 2005-2010. Based on the annual change in the TFR from peak years for each region-1970region- -75 in Asia, 1975-80 -80 in Latin America, and 1980s in sub-Saharan Africa-the pace of decline in the TFR from the onset of decline to 2005-2010 has been much lower in Africa (0.03 births per year) than in Asia (0.12 per year) and Latin America (0.13 per year) (ibid.). In addition, recent evidence shows that the decline has stalled in several countries While a stalled fertility decline is not unique to Africa, the stall is occurring at much higher levels of fertility than is the case in countries with stalled fertility declines in other regions. For example, fertility in Bangladesh, Dominican Republic, Egypt, and Indonesia stalled at about 3 births per woman compared to more than 4 births in Ghana and Kenya and about 4 in Zimbabwe